Thursday, April 19, 2007

China: Four years to #1?

China's National Bureau of Statistics has announced that China's economy grew at an annual rate of 11.1% in the first quarter of this year, despite government efforts to cool down the economy.

If you go by the method the CIA uses to measure the size of a country's economy, purchasing power parity, and you use an annual growth rate for China's economy of 11% and use an annual growth rate for America's economy of 2.2%, this means China's economy will surpass America's in size in about four years.

Of course, there's some real guess work in there, but none of it is that wild. I think China's economy may begin to grow at an even faster pace in the next five years or so, as consumer spending really takes off. And 2.2% isn't that far off the mark for America's economic growth rate considering many economists are predicting a recession (two quarters or more of negative GDP growth) for us soon.

I think we are indeed living in interesting times.


Blogger happyfeet said...

that's depressing. It would sure suck if China passed us while a Democratic pres was in office. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

1:47 AM  

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